Skip to main content

Mutually exclusive events and independent events are not the same.


Mutually exclusive events and independent events are not the same, therefore don't mixed up [1].  Recently, I started to read a book about probability. In the second chapter of the book [2], I have already found my big misunderstood. I didn't know this for a long time. I am not good at probability. Maybe because I missed very fundamental things like this. I thought mutually exclusive and independent are the same thing. Here, I would like to explain they are completely different concepts.

Mutually exclusive events are never happens at once.


An example of mutually exclusive events are

  • head of first toss of a coin
  • tail of first toss of a coin

One coin toss, head and tail at once never happened.

But independent events can happens at once. The definition of independent events is


This may not be 0. An example of independent events are

  • head of first toss of a coin
  • head of second toss of a coin

These two events are independent.

But, I also find this definition is kind of difficult for me. The definition said if the and-probability is equal to the multiplication of each probability, they are independent. However, how do you know the probability in general? I think it is hard to know exact probability from an observation. Maybe it's just definition, but, independent events are not so clear for me by this definition.

References

[1] Hisao Tamaki, Introduction to statistics for information science, for application of simulation algorithms. ISBN-13: 978-4781910123 (Japanese)

[2] Malvin H. Kalos and Paula A. Whitlock, Monte Carlo Methods, Volume I: Basics, ISBN-13: 978-0471898399

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Geometric Multiplicity: eignvectors (2)

If eigenvectors of a matrix A are independent, it is a happy property. Because the matrix A can be diagonalized with a matrix S that column vectors are eigenvectors of A . For example, Why this is a happy property of A? Because I can find A's power easily. A^{10} is not a big deal. Because Λ is a diagonal matrix and power of a diagonal matrix is quite simple. A^{10} = SΛ^{10} S^{-1} Then, why if I want to compute power of A ? That is the same reason to find eigenvectors. Eigenvectors are a basis of a matrix. A matrix can be represented by a single scalar. I repeat this again. This is the happy point, a matrix becomes a scalar. What can be simpler than a scalar value. But, this is only possible when the matrix S's columns are independent. Because S^{-1} must be exist. Now I come back to my first question. Is the λ's multiplicity related with the number of eigenvectors? This time I found this has the name. Geometric multiplicity (GM): the number of in...
Post a Comment
Read more

Gauss's quote for positive, negative, and imaginary number

Recently I watched the following great videos about imaginary numbers by Welch Labs. https://youtu.be/T647CGsuOVU?list=PLiaHhY2iBX9g6KIvZ_703G3KJXapKkNaF I like this article about naming of math by Kalid Azad. https://betterexplained.com/articles/learning-tip-idea-name/ Both articles mentioned about Gauss, who suggested to use other names of positive, negative, and imaginary numbers. Gauss wrote these names are wrong and that is one of the reason people didn't get why negative times negative is positive, or, pure positive imaginary times pure positive imaginary is negative real number. I made a few videos about explaining why -1 * -1 = +1, too. Explanation: why -1 * -1 = +1 by pattern https://youtu.be/uD7JRdAzKP8 Explanation: why -1 * -1 = +1 by climbing a mountain https://youtu.be/uD7JRdAzKP8 But actually Gauss's insight is much powerful. The original is in the Gauß, Werke, Bd. 2, S. 178 . Hätte man +1, -1, √-1) nicht positiv, negative, imaginäre (oder gar um...
Post a Comment
Read more

Tezuka Osamu's Black Jack, "Shrinking"

I like several novel authors. My first favorite author is probably Teduka, Osamu. I still love him. The list grows by adding Hoshi, Shinichi, Agatha Christie, Hermann Hesse, and so forth. My first favorite article of Tezuka was Atom as most of the (boy's) Tezuka fans did. But my favorite is Black Jack. I try to summarize one story, it is still quite vivid in my memory. I first read this story when I was 13 - 15 years old. I re-read it at least several times since Black Jack is composed of many short episodes. The title should be "ちぢむ (SHRINKING)" or it might be "縮む(Shrinking)". (It is not so convenient to translate this to English, since English does not have a system to say the exact same word in several ways. So I just simulate it with capital letters.) Black Jack is a genius surgeon, but he does not have the license. In short, his medical activity is illegal. His skill is top level in the world, but, the fee is also out-of-law expensive. In the story ...
Post a Comment
Read more